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Thank you for your input. -5 Vote up Vote down Love Check Points · 312 weeks ago http://fluoridealert.org/content/communities/ I am against using it. Report Reply 1 reply · active 312 weeks ago +1 Vote up Vote down JustMe · 312 weeks ago Dear “Love Check Points” We don’t care. Signed Wellington City Council. Report Reply -6 Vote up Vote down JustMe · 312 weeks ago Big brother knows best…… Report Reply 0 replies · active 312 weeks ago +9 Vote up Vote down anonymous · 312 weeks ago I seriously dont want anyone other than scientific knowledge types making decisions about our water. How many times the past few years have we received notice that “our water was found to be in violation” printed on the backs of our bills? This council is not qualified and neither are the residents really. This isn’t a taste test anyway…we fail that hands down! Report Reply 0 replies · active 312 weeks ago +7 Vote up Vote down Ted Logan · 312 weeks ago I like when fluoridation issues arise because it makes it easy to find the morons. Report Reply 0 replies · active 312 weeks ago +3 Vote up Vote down guest · 312 weeks ago I like it when things float in the water from the tap and taste funny, says no one ever. Report Reply 0 replies · active 312 weeks ago +2 Vote up Vote down craig · 312 weeks ago Our water is basically dreadful … pseudo Swamp goo… and way overpriced – but at least it will be better for our children’s teeth if we pour fluoride into it? Come on, folks! Report Reply 0 replies · active 312 weeks ago 0 Vote up Vote down Seriously · 311 weeks ago The Mayor has never voted in favor of the people. Nice guy……brainwashed Mayor. Report Reply 0 replies · active 311 weeks ago Post a new comment Enter text right here! 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Tweet this comment Cancel Submit Comment Subscribe to None Replies All new comments by Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow â€” Wellington City voters will not be voting this November whether or not to continue the fluoridation of municipal water.The council did not have a majority required to pass an ordinance which would have placed fluoridation as a referendum during the Nov. 4 general election.The vote ended in a 3-3 deadlock with Mayor Roger Stallbaumer declining to cast the needed fourth vote to pass the ordinance. Those voting â€œyesâ€ for an election vote were John Tracy, Jim Valentine and Jan Korte. Those voting â€œnoâ€ against putting it on the ballot was Vince Wetta, John Brand and Kelly Green.Wellington has been fluoridating its water supply since Jan. 3, 1980 when it was passed by an ordinance. For the past 34 years, Wellington has put in one part fluoride to a million parts water.Â Tracy said at a work session a month ago that fluoridation needed to be approved by the voters because recently there was interest by several individuals hoping to end the practice.At Tuesdayâ€™s meeting he stated:â€œI have received some correspondence in favor (of a vote) and correspondence against. To me it is not an issue if fluoride is good, but about giving the public a choice. One of the e-mails I received said it best, â€˜the communities that fluoridate the water by ordinance instead of public vote is effectively medicating our citizens without their permission.â€™ I couldnâ€™t agree more.â€Brand responded:â€œI respect your position, but that is a gross exaggeration saying that we are medicating the public.â€He then read several health studies for the fluoridation of water which included endorsements from the American Dental Association, the Center of Disease Control, U.S. Surgeon Generalâ€™s office, and Oral Health America.â€œI donâ€™t think this should go to a public vote because the people it protects the most are the people who canâ€™t vote because they are not old enough,â€ Brand said.Valentine asked how long they have been putting fluoride in toothpaste and Dr. Gwen Stalcup, who was in the audience, said since the 1950s.When the vote was taken, Stallbaumer had to break the tie and immediately voted no. But City Attorney Mike Brown and interim City Manager Shane Shields had to confer for a few minutes whether or not a mayor can cast a negative vote according to Kansas State Statute.It was determined a mayor can only cast a positive vote. Stallbaumer then stated: â€œI decline to say yes.â€Follow us on Twitter.
Advertisement 5anNBA Finals | Brooklyn Vs0r6Wingsuit rodeo📽Sindre E31l1m( IG: @_aubreyfisher @imraino ) 80vWould you ever consider trying this?😱2Can your students do this? 🌚fqRoller skating! Powered by Firework As is the trend before big matches, a combined 11 of both United and Liverpool squads were created by Sky Sports but that did not feature a single Manchester United player.Advertisement Sky Sports’ tweet reads ” Danny Mills has selected his combined XI ahead of Liverpool’s visit to Old Trafford as the Premier League returns this weekend, live on Sky Sports. A total of Manchester United players made the cut, with Mills saying some would struggle to make the bench!”Advertisement Although , at first it sounds absurd but when each position on a pitch is evaluated and compared between with their counterparts of the other team – Liverpool players emerge much more superior.One can definitely make a good argument for Pogba having the edge over Henderson or Wjnaldum because of the Frenchman’s World Cup heroics but the lack of any substantial performance for Manchester United seems very lacklustre compared to blockbuster performances of Henderson and Wjnaldum both.Advertisement With that said, Manchester United fans need to brace for impace for what seems to be their nightmare season. Statistically it is their worst start to a Premier League season. Advertisement
By Celia BelmonteRED BANK – During a time of economic turmoil, borough merchants and those in the business community have differing views on the state of the town’s business landscape and conflicting feelings about its future.For some business owners, there are far too many vacant storefronts along the city’s most popular drags. Others say they know that looks can be deceiving and that there are more businesses slated to open. After a tough economic period, they say, there are reasons to be optimistic.“The building that I am looking at across the street from me on Broad Street has been vacant for four years now,” said Vinnie Woods, manager of Love Lane Tuxedos. “That is disgraceful.”Employees at Mr. Pizza Slice, the 16-year-old pizzeria on Monmouth Street, agree.“The lack of occupancy in town hurts our business,” said Phil Sloan of Mr. Pizza Slice. “Companies like Lucas Oil and Wells Fargo have moved out taking their employees with them so less people are around who used to stop in for a meal.”Additionally, a few businesses have moved out of town, doing little to suppress the qualms of current business owners.Space Interiors, the furniture and design store located on White Street at the corner of English Plaza, is relocating to Deal. Paw Palace at 16 Monmouth St. is moving to 333 Silverside Ave. in Little Silver. It will have the same ownership and grooming staff and will be called The Dog Spaw’ Grooming Salon.“For our type of business a Red Bank location does not suit us,” said Alaina Jawidowicz of Paw Palace. “Lack of parking for our customers… is an issue. Deliveries of heavy merchandise, like dog food, are also hard due to the parking situation.”Others see Red Bank’s business district in a different light.“I’m very excited about what’s happening downtown,” said Jay Herman of Downtown Investors, a development firm that owns office and retail space in Red Bank. “There’s a lot of good going on.”Herman, who has been a member of the Red Bank RiverCenter executive board since its inception, said that, while some may see empty storefronts, he knows that a good number of them – at least 15 by his count – will be filled soon. Several business owners have signed leases but have yet to open.The perception that stores are empty is wrong, he said. “Most of the vacant space isn’t really vacant. It takes a long time to open” a new business.Reasons for the delays include getting borough permits and certifications, financing, construction issues and possible inexperience of first-time business owners who need time to work out the details of their new ventures, Herman said.“Red Bank’s comeback is remarkable” after a period of economic downturn which hit most people hard four years ago, Herman said. “If you take a drive down, say Route 35 from Hazlet to Brielle, you will find vacancy rates much higher in those areas than in Red Bank.”“Red Bank is reinventing itself,” said Sharon Fisler, owner of Wayne’s Market. The market has been a Red Bank staple ever since her late brother, Wayne Fisler, opened the wine, food store and catering business 37 years ago.Wayne’s Market will soon get some new neighbors as Jr’s West End, a popular Long Branch late-night burger joint, will open another location in the former home of Zuleyka’s Kitchen. Boardwalk Fresh Burgers and Fries will move into the original home of Zebu Forno.Another newcomer is Char Steakhouse, taking over the former site of Ashes Cigar Bar on Broad Street“Char is going full blast,” Red Bank RiverCenter Executive Director Nancy Adams said. “They are doing $2 million in renovations to that building. They are going to have glass windows all the way up and down.” Char plans to open what Adams calls a “first-class restaurant” this fall.RiverCenter is focusing on businesses moving into Red Bank, viewing new additions as vital to the city’s unique economic evolution.“People see stores boarded up and paper on the windows and think they are vacant,” Adams said. “Some places have ‘Coming Soon’ signs but some do not. That does not mean that they are not committed and leased. It is not as bad as people may think. Perception is not reality.”Adams notes plans for a new Subway Café on Broad Street, a health food store next to Smoothie King and hopes a Red Bank location will appeal to more national retailers.“I work with a retail broker and we are trying to get national tenants,” Adams said. “National retailers tend to have longer leases, nice merchandise and stay open later.”Larger stores like Urban Outfitters, Restoration Hardware and Tiffany & Co., all along Broad Street, have done considerably well in Red Bank over the years.However, there are no intentions to shut out Red Bank’s mom-and-pop shops.“The RiverCenter does not want to duplicate a mall,” Adams said. “Small, independent retail stores create a nice mix and are what make people come to Red Bank. They are what makes it unique.”The owners of a new gluten-free cupcake store, Posh Pop Bakeshop, could not be happier with choosing to open the company’s first store in Red Bank.“Red Bank seemed like the ideal place,” said Matthew Pytel, chief sales director at Posh Pop. “I have seen a lot of customers return, even some daily. So far we have performed above expectations.”It appears that securing some sense of economic stability in Red Bank will be about business originality and reinvention.Patti Siciliano, owner of Funk & Standard, will relocate the 14-year-old Red Bank clothing store to 7 Broad St. where she will focus more on expanding her Yummy Yummy Good Stuff juice bar.In addition, after a recent move up Broad Street, Zebu Forno has once again closed its doors as owner Andrew Gennusa plans to team up with Red Bank resident Biagio Schiano to create Biagio Wood-Fired Pizza.Rumson China & Glass also will be moving to space in the borough, as will a photographer and a consignment shop. A Broad Street salon is moving from an upstairs space to a space twice the size on the street, Herman said.Herman points to other positive indicators for the business district’s health. That includes new housing being built in the area, such as the 60 units that are under construction at The Atrium at Navesink Harbor on Riverside Avenue. He also points to the expansion at Morgan Stanley, a project handled by his company, making it the third largest Morgan Stanley office in the Northeast, after New York and Boston – larger than even the firm’s Philadelphia office.“I am frustrated by how long it takes people to get new businesses open but I am excited that it’s happening,” Herman said.“I think the future looks very good,” he said. “I see what’s happening in Red Bank and the immediate future looks very rosy … I am very optimistic.”
Route Your Way to Premium MembershipImagine a world built around all things geocaching. In this world traveling from “here” to “there” includes a customized list of your ideal geocaches. You choose which geocaches are on the list, including the cache types, sizes, and terrain and difficulty ratings. You even choose how far these caches are hidden from the road. If you’re a Premium Member, you’re in luck; this world exists today.The Premium Member feature we’re talking about is called “Caches Along a Route.” It’s a custom search that pinpoints only the geocaches you’d like to find between Point A and Point B. A new route is easy to create and send to your GPS device. Premium Members also enjoy the benefits of Google Maps and can award and sort search results by Favorite Points. A Premium Membership costs as little as $2.50 a month, and it could turn your next road trip into an epic geocaching adventure. Explore Premium Membership now!Share with your Friends:More SharePrint RelatedGeocaching.com Presents: Caches Along a RouteJuly 6, 2012In “Deutsch”Groundspeak Weekly Newsletter – March 30, 2011March 30, 2011In “Groundspeak’s Weekly Newsletter”5 tips for planning your next vacation with geocachingJuly 31, 2017In “GeoTours”
About the authorCarlos VolcanoShare the loveHave your say Real Madrid ace Eden Hazard: We need derby mentalityby Carlos Volcanoa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveReal Madrid ace Eden Hazard is up for the derby with Atletico Madrid today.Hazard has talked about the keys to the game.He declared, “Your mentality. In a derby that’s key and what’s even more important is your desire. When you’re a football player, you know what derbies are like. You know what you have to do, you just have to win; you don’t need your teammates to tell you that.”You know what the vibes are like in these games, the passion, the rivalry amongst fans… especially when you’ve got two teams from the same city, like Real Madrid and Atlético. I want to score and win in the derby. I just want to make the fans happy.”
GENOA, Italy – Italy’s president demanded guarantees Saturday that all the nation’s roads are safe following the Genoa highway bridge collapse, after he hugged and comforted mourners at a state funeral in the grieving port city.President Sergio Mattarella spoke quietly to victims’ families before the ceremony began on Genoa’s fairgrounds. Usually reserved in demeanour, Mattarella was embraced tightly for a long moment by one distraught woman.He then took his place with other Italian leaders, including Premier Giuseppe Conte and the transportation minister, in the packed yet cavernous hall.Afterward, Mattarella called the funeral, which took place on a day of national mourning, “a moment of grief, shared grief, by all of Italy.”One mourner, a local man who would only give his first name, Alessandro, held a placard that read: “In Italy, we prefer ribbon-cuttings to maintenance” — referring to the country’s dilapidated infrastructure.“These are mistakes that keep on repeating. And now, for the umpteenth time, angels have flown into heaven and paid for the mistakes of other human beings,” Alessandro said.As the city honoured its dead, the toll from Tuesday’s bridge collapse rose unofficially Saturday to 43 with the discovery of four more bodies in the rubble and the death in the hospital of the most severely injured survivor.Firefighter Stefano Zanut told Sky TG24 TV they had extracted from tons of broken concrete the crushed car that an Italian couple on vacation with their 9-year-old daughter had been travelling in.Zanut said the last body pulled out of the wreckage was that of a young Italian man, an employee of Genoa’s trash company, who was working under the bridge when it collapsed. The man’s mother had refused to leave a tent set up a few hundred yards away from the rubble until his body was found.RAI state radio said authorities now believe there are no more missing in the tragedy.Later, San Martino Hospital said a Romanian truck driver who had suffered severe cranial and chest injuries in the bridge collapse died Saturday evening.The families of 19 victims their loved ones’ coffins brought to the hall for the funeral Mass led by Genoa’s archbishop, Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, who said the tragedy “gashed the heart of Genoa.”“The initial disbelief and then the growing dimension of the catastrophe, the general bewilderment, the tumult of emotions, the pressing “Whys?” have touched us yet again and in a brutal way showed the inexorable fragility of the human condition,” he said.Among the coffins were those of two young Albanian Muslim men who lived and worked in Italy. Their remains were blessed at the end of the Catholic service by a Genoa imam, who drew applause when he prayed for God to “protect Italy and all Italians.”Players and managers from the city’s two major league soccer teams, Genoa and Sampdoria, also attended after their weekend matches were postponed out of respect for the dead.At other bridge funerals on Friday, angry mourners blamed authorities of negligence and incompetence for failing to keep the bridge safe.During the state funeral, applause rang out and many fought back tears Saturday as a prelate read out the first names of some 30 victims who have been identified. The mourners also applauded Italian firefighters, police and volunteers for the civil protection department as they arrived.Mattarella toured what’s left of the Morandi Bridge, which broke apart in a fierce rainstorm, sending a long stretch of roadbed crashing 45 metres (150 feet) into a dry river bed near several apartment buildings. Those buildings have been evacuated and authorities say they will have to be demolished.After the funeral, Mattarella told reporters the bridge collapse “is an unacceptable tragedy.” He demanded that “responsibility be ascertained with rigour” for the collapse of the bridge, which linked two major highways, one leading to Milan and the other toward France.Prosecutors say they are focusing their probe on possible design flaws or inadequate maintenance of the highway bridge, which was completed in 1967.“I, too, have travelled over this bridge many times,” said Mattarella, demanding that authorities commit to carrying out their “duty to guarantee the safety of our roads.”Responding to harsh criticism, the Italian highway company in charge of the collapsed bridge offered Saturday to build a new bridge in eight months.Giovanni Castellucci, CEO of Autostrade per l’Italia, the company that manages Italian highways and bridges, told reporters it has a plan to demolish what’s left of the largely concrete 51-year-old Morandi Bridge and build a “less imposing” steel one.Italy’s government, however, has begun procedures to revoke the company’s concession and has vowed that Autostrade per l’Italia will never again run the nation’s roads.Castellucci declined to talk about the government’s stance. He said even though the cause of Tuesday’s bridge collapse hasn’t been determined “we apologize” since “perceptions count.”Castellucci also said the company would provide funds to help the hundreds of people evacuated from apartment buildings in the shadow of the bridge.But the Italy’s new populist government quickly spurned both the offer of help and the apology.“Let’s be very clear, the state won’t take charity from Autostrade,” Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio, who attended the funeral, said in a Facebook post. “We’ll insist on credible reimbursement, and there won’t be any bartering. The only road the government will follow is that of going forward with revocation procedures.”At the state funeral, the names of the dead were placed on each coffin before the altar. Photographs, flowers and on one coffin a signed sports jersey, a sports trophy and a stuffed animal added personal touches.Players from a local team in Italy’s Serie D soccer, Campi Corniglianese, came to pay tribute to one of their own. Among the two Albanian dead was Marius Djerri, 22, who played for the team and was on his way to work for a cleaning company along with his compatriot when their truck plunged into the abyss.“(Marius was) a golden boy. Maybe not the strongest player on the pitch, but as a person, I would like all players to be like him,” team president Augustus Pintus said.___D’Emilio reported from Rome.___Frances D’Emilio is on twitter at www.twitter.com/fdemilio
WASHINGTON – The U.S. economy grew at a robust annual rate of 4.2 per cent in the second quarter, the best performance in nearly four years, though economists believe growth has slowed in the current quarter partly because of a drag from trade.The performance of the gross domestic product, the country’s total output of goods and services, was unchanged from an estimate the Commerce Department made last month, the government reported Thursday.The strong GDP performance has been cited by Trump as proof that his economic program is working.“We’re doing much better than anybody thought possible,” Trump said at a Wednesday news conference.However, a big part of that growth reflected a temporary rush to ship soybeans and other U.S. exports out before penalty tariffs triggered by Trump’s get-tough trade policies took effect.Economists believe growth has slowed in the current quarter to between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent, still a solid pace. While trade boosted GDP by 1.2 percentage point in the second quarter, due to a surge in exports, it is expected to trim growth by around 1 percentage point in the third quarter. Some of that weakness may be offset by businesses rebuilding their inventories at a stronger pace.“Growth still looks quite strong,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said in describing the revised GDP report for the second quarter. He said he was forecasting third and fourth quarter growth at around 3 per cent “before momentum starts to fade in 2019.”A 3 per cent growth average in the second half of this year would leave the annual growth in 2018 at 3 per cent. That would be the best performance since 2005, three years before the 2008 financial crisis pushed the country into the worst recession since the 1930s.The country is currently in the 10th year of an economic expansion, the second longest in history. But growth has averaged a lacklustre 2.2 per cent, making this the weakest recovery in the post-World War II period.Trump often noted that performance when he campaigned for president, blaming the weakness on Obama administration economic policies. He pushed a $1.5 trillion tax cut through Congress last December and has emphasized deregulation and vowed tougher enforcement of trade agreements as ways to boost growth.The administration is projecting growth will return to sustained rates of 3 per cent or better over the next decade. However, others disagree with that assessment, forecasting growth will slow sharply in coming years as the impact of the tax cuts and increased government spending this year begin to fade. There is also an expectation that rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve will temper growth.The Fed pushed its key policy rate up for an eighth time on Wednesday to a new range of 2 per cent to 2.25 per cent.As he has done recently, Trump criticized that move, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a news conference on Wednesday that outside criticism would have no impact on the Fed’s efforts to follow its mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices.The Fed indicated that it planned to stick with its plan to raise rates one more time this year and another three times in 2019.The government’s third and final look at second quarter GDP showed only minor and off-setting changes. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 per cent of economic activity, was unchanged at a solid growth rate of 3.8 per cent. Business investment grew at a strong 8.7 per cent rate, up slightly from last month’s estimate of an 8.5 per cent growth rate.
Mumbai: State Bank of India has put on sale six non-performing accounts worth Rs 2,337.88 crore, which will be auctioned on March 26. The bank is looking to sell all the accounts on a 100 percent cash basis to banks, ARCs, NBFCs and other financial institutions, according to the auction notice on the lender’s website on Tuesday. The accounts are Indian Steel Corporation (outstanding debt Rs 928.88 crore), Jai Balaji Industries (Rs 859.33 crore), Kohinoor Planet Construction (Rs 207.77 crore), Mittal Corp (Rs 116.34 crore), MCL Global Steel (Rs 100.18 crore), Shree Vaishnav Ispat (Rs 82.52 crore) and Gati Infrastructure (Rs 42.86 crore). Also Read – Maruti cuts production for 8th straight month in SepThe lender said except Mittal Corp and Shree Vaishnav, the auctions are under the Swiss Challenge method and will be conducted on March 26. Last week, the bank had put on block six other NPA accounts worth Rs 1,307.27 crore— Parental Drugs (Rs 429.72 crore), Kamachi Industries (Rs 365.68 crore), Jain Infraprojects (Rs 361.55 crore), MPK Ispat, MPK Steel and MPK Metals (Rs 53.86 crore), Balmukund Polyplast (Rs 50.12 crore) and Martina Biogenics (Rs 46.34 crore). The auction these accounts will be conducted on March 22.
With the NHL playoffs starting this week, all eyes will be on the goaltenders, hockey’s masked men. A goalie’s time on the ice is a solitary existence, with flurries of activity punctuating long periods of inaction. Hockey has been called the ultimate team sport, but all too often the goaltender finds himself alone as the puck approaches.Because the goalie is a team’s last line of defense, it’s no surprise that strong performance in net is incredibly important to winning a hockey game. During the regular season, save percentage (the generally accepted shorthand measure of goaltending effectiveness) explains a higher proportion of team performance than any other fundamental factor1Think of hockey’s “Four Factors” as the following: generating shots (as measured by shots per game), scoring on a high percentage of those shots (shooting percentage), preventing opposing shots (shots allowed per game), and stopping shots (save percentage). Together, these factors explain over 99 percent of a team’s goals-per game-differential, which in turn explains 92 percent of point percentage (a team’s standings points divided by the total number of points available in its games). in hockey.2The measure of relative importance used here is the Lindeman, Merenda and Gold (LMG) method described in this paper. In NHL regular seasons since 1988, team save percentage has a 29.5 percent LMG value when regressed against goal differential/game, compared to 28.9 percent for shooting percentage, 24.0 percent for shots allowed/game, and 17.7 percent for shots/game. In the playoffs, the emphasis on goaltending only intensifies; save percentage is easily the most important determinant of a team’s goals-per-game differential in the postseason.3In postseason play since 1988, team save percentage has a 43.3 percent LMG value when regressed against per-game goal differential, compared to 34.9 percent for shooting percentage, 13.3 percent for shots allowed/game and 8.6 percent for shots/game. A hot goalie really is the key to a successful playoff run.But herein lies a great paradox: Despite goaltending’s outsize impact on the outcomes of hockey games, it’s extremely hard to say exactly which goalies are truly good or bad at their jobs.This perplexing point was raised by the authors of the 2010 book “Stumbling on Wins,” and it still stands today. Using Hockey-Reference.com’s adjusted version of the save percentage statistic, adjusted Goals Against Percentage (GA%-),4I used GA%- because it’s useful for historical analysis since it compares a goalie’s save percentage to the ever-changing league average. GA%- is scaled to represent the percentage of the league’s rate of goals per shot that a player allows, so lower is better. For example, a GA%- of 84, like Henrik Lundqvist had last season, means he allowed only 84 percent of the number of goals a league-average goalie would have allowed on the same number of shots. the correlation of goalie performance from year to year is so low5A correlation coefficient of 0.296, to be exact, for goalies who qualified for Hockey-Reference’s leaderboards in back-to-back seasons. that, in practical terms, only 30 percent of the difference we see between a goalie and the league average in any given season actually “belongs” to the goalie himself. The rest is just random.6So when Ottawa’s Craig Anderson led the NHL last season with a 67 GA%- (the second-lowest mark of any goalie since 1984), the best expectation of his talent going forward was still only a GA%- of 90 — the assumption being that the other 23 points of GA%- were probably due to random variance. (If you’re doubting that assumption, Anderson snapped back to earth this season with a 104 GA%-.)The poor correlation of save percentage from one year to the next also indicates that goalies are extremely volatile commodities. For instance, if a goaltender is above average in a given season, there’s only a 59.2 percent chance he’ll be above average again the following year. And if he’s below average now, don’t worry: There’s a 47.2 percent probability that he’ll be above average next season.7Some of this is admittedly due to selection bias; by zeroing in on goalies we knew had a “next season,” we’re implicitly weeding out the ones who played poorly and were never given another chance — presumably because scouts decided they were as bad as the numbers said. But the threshold to qualify for Hockey-Reference’s save percentage leaderboard is a mere 26 games in a normal season, so the selection effect shouldn’t influence the results too much.Take Brian Elliott of the St. Louis Blues. During the 2010-11 season, Elliott was the NHL’s second-worst qualified goalie — only Nikolai Khabibulin was less effective at stopping pucks — and in 142 career games he had a lifetime GA%- of 111 (which translates to 11 percent worse than league average). If any goalie seemed unlikely to play well in the future, it was Elliott, but the very next year he led the NHL with a 69 GA%- (31 percent better than league average), at the time the third-best single-season performance by any goalie since the NHL started tracking save percentage in 1984.8Elliott’s 2011-12 season now ranks fourth because Craig Anderson put up a 67 GA%- last season. And how did Elliott follow that brilliant campaign? By posting a below-average 106 GA%- last season, and a 90 GA%- this year.It’s the kind of thing that will spin you around faster than a Pavel Datsyuk deke.So is Elliott a good goaltender or not? We can say he is probably a slightly below-average netminder who happened to have an all-time outlier of a career year in 2012. But that’s just because we have a relatively large amount of data on him by now. His career GA%- is 103 after nearly 250 games and 6,000 shots faced. A goalie’s save percentage only begins to stabilize after facing around 3,000 shots, at which point we would expect half of his observed performance to be talent (the rest is still luck). The busiest goaltenders each year face roughly 2,000 shots, so it takes about a season and a half for GA%- to offer insight on even the biggest goaltending workhorses.This does not mean that there is no difference in talent among goalies. It just means there’s a great deal of uncertainty around how any one goalie compares to another, and that the distribution of talent among NHL-caliber goaltenders is significantly more narrow than would be expected from looking at season-level save percentages alone.9The spread of which is artificially inflated by luck in small samples. As a consequence, the “replacement-level” save percentage for goalies (to borrow a term from baseball’s sabermetrics, referring to the production a team could expect from a minimum-salary player freely available on the waiver wire) is remarkably close to league average.10In keeping with the ratios of cap dollars devoted to each position, a save percentage .006 below average is probably the optimal replacement level. In 2013-14, that would set the replacement level at .908, a number that was average just five seasons ago. This, too, is a product of the uncertainty surrounding the true talent level of any given goalie — with such high levels of volatility, teams don’t need to accept bad goaltending performances for long. Given what little information we have about any goalie’s actual talent, a backup is almost as likely to give above-replacement production as a struggling starter is.If chance overwhelms skill in an entire regular season’s worth of goaltending statistics, imagine what can happen in the playoffs, when the leading goalies face but 800 shots at most. The Vancouver Canucks have experience with this: Kirk McLean, a nine-year veteran with a perfectly average 100 career GA%- going into the 1994 playoffs, backstopped the team to within a win of the Stanley Cup on the strength of a stellar 78 GA%- in the postseason. So do Capitals die-hards: Olaf Kolzig led Washington to the Finals in 1998 with a playoff GA%- that was 27 points lower than his career average. And Mike Smith nearly did the same for the 2012 Phoenix Coyotes. Playoff history is littered with seemingly nondescript goaltenders who suddenly became incredible puck-stoppers come springtime.But history can also cut the other way. In 2001, the great Patrick Roy had a regular-season GA%- of 90 — 13th in the league, if slightly down from his peak numbers of a few years earlier — and during the playoffs he had one of the best performances of his career with a 75 GA%-, leading the Colorado Avalanche to the championship. The following year, Roy was quite a bit better during the regular season (81 GA%-), ostensibly setting himself up for another strong playoff bid. So what happened next? Roy put up a terrible 110 GA%- in the playoffs, capped off by an embarrassing, season-ending loss to Detroit in which he allowed six goals before being pulled from the game in the second period. In the minuscule sample of the playoffs, even Hall of Famers are at the capricious whims of variance.It’s something to keep in mind during this year’s playoffs. Just as we found the correlation for regular-season GA%- to be quite low from year to year, the correlation between a goalie’s regular-season and his playoff GA%- is even smaller, as is the correlation between his previous career GA%- and playoff GA%-. We can’t predict who will fluctuate, just that somebody likely will.It’s not just goalies who are unpredictable; hockey’s stats holy war over shot quantity versus shot quality has shown us that an offense’s shooting percentage is just as inconsistent. The whole sport is especially vulnerable to random fluctuations, something that shows up most once a puck starts moving towards the net.In 2008, an Edmonton fan named Brian King left a comment at a now-defunct Oilers blog suggesting that the best way to understand luck in hockey was to look at a team’s shooting percentage on offense and the collective save percentage of its goalies. If you combined those stats for a team, and compared them to the league average, you could tell whether a team had been lucky or unlucky — and how far it had to go to regress to the league’s mean. The metric became known as PDO (its namesake was King’s online pseudonym), and the more it strays from its baseline of 1.00 (above 1 means lucky; below, unlucky), the more likely the team’s record, and even its goal differential, has been tainted by randomness.A great deal of recent hockey research has shown that, if given a large enough sample, every team’s PDO will more or less regress toward the league average of 1.00. The big implication of PDO is that a team has virtually no long-term control over shooting percentage, just like it can’t predict the efficacy of its goalie. The key to good defense, then, is simply to keep the opposition from shooting, because it’s impossible for a goalie to maintain a consistently high save percentage.PDO can now tell us the extent of hockey’s chaos, but goaltenders have always grappled with the randomness of their position. In his classic book, “The Game,” the Montreal Canadiens’ Hall of Fame goalie Ken Dryden wrote that a goaltender’s mental focus is key:If you were to ask a coach or a player what he would most like to see in a goalie, he would, after some rambling out-loud thoughts, probably settle on something like: consistency, dependability, and the ability to make the big save. [ … ] Because the demands on a goalie are mostly mental, it means that for a goalie the biggest enemy is himself. Not a puck, not an opponent, not a quirk of size or style. Him. The stress and anxiety he feels when he plays, the fear of failing, the fear of being embarrassed, the fear of being physically hurt, all are symptoms of his position, in constant ebb and flow, but never disappearing. The successful goalie understands these neuroses, accepts them, and puts them under control. The unsuccessful goalie is distracted by them, his mind in knots, his body quickly following.Stats portray the goalie’s job as a nihilistic one. Chaos mounts, pucks fly, muscles react. What happens beyond that is so random that, as Dryden writes, the only way for a goalie to cope is to focus on what’s immediately in front of him: a stretch of ice with an ever-changing landscape of variables.
Scotland national team head coach Alex McLeish has revealed he plans to rest defender Kieran Tierney when the team faces European champions, Portugal on Sunday.Tierney is one of five players to have left the Scottish team since the 2-1 UEFA Nations League defeat to Israel on Thursday night, a game settled when the 21-year-old’s poor clearance beat Allan McGregor, who was in goal for Scotland to give the Israelis all three points.The Celtic left-back was playing his 22nd game of the season across all competitions for both club and country in Haifa, leaving him on course to match the 60-game shift he put in last term.With the game against Portugal of little or no competitive significance, McLeish has opted to grant Tierney some rest with the injured Charlie Mulgrew, John Souttar, Robert Snodgrass and Scott McTominay also dropping out.“We have players who’ve played a lot of games already this season,” said McLeish, according to Daily Mail. Arsenal suffer huge blow as Lacazette is ruled out until October Andrew Smyth – September 13, 2019 Arsenal announced that striker Alexandre Lacazette has suffered an ankle injury and will be sidelined until October.“We were prepared to make a concession to Celtic in the summer over Kieran because he is a young guy growing up and has played an enormous amount of games.”“I remember back to my Aberdeen days with boys like Neale Cooper and Neil Simpson. They played a lot of games at an extremely young age, and they finished their careers relatively early.”“We don’t want that to happen to the current crop of players. That’s why Tierney is away back again. The medical team said he had a bit of fatigue, so it was right and proper that he went back to his club.”Tierney’s absence might allow McLeish to experiment with a flat back four, thus resolving one of the main criticisms of the performance in Israel, namely that the 3-5-2 formation chosen to accommodate both the Celtic man and Liverpool defender Andy Robertson does not help the team’s wide men.